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Stairway to a Bull Market

IBKR Podcasts

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What Data Points Will Signal a Recession?

The FOMC has a dual mandate of both employment and price stability. So within employment, I'm focused on two precise items. The first one is the unemployment rate; it's not so much the absolute rate. Did it go up by point two or point three? And that's going to signal a recession. Those are the two things I'm watching, the unemployment rate, the three month average, and then the Joltz data ratio that power watches.

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