In this Upstream episode, Erik Torenberg sits down with military historian Victor Davis Hanson. They discuss the future of Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, the evolution of the American left, and Donald Trump's potential future legacy.
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LINKS:
Official site: https://victorhanson.com/
The Victor Davis Hanson podcast: https://victorhanson.com/podcasts/
Hoover Institution - featured publications and videos: https://www.hoover.org/profiles/victor-davis-hanson
Erik's substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/
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X / TWITTER:
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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
- Trump's second term will likely be less chaotic due to appointees who align with his agenda.
- The Republican party is now more unified without "Never Trumpers."
- Trump expanded his coalition by winning significant portions of Hispanic and Black male votes.
- JD Vance is positioned as a strong 2028 candidate due to his background and communication skills.
- Europe will likely move politically rightward due to economic and defense inadequacies.
- Germany maintains trade surpluses while not meeting NATO defense spending requirements.
- The US-European relationship has become unbalanced with Europeans criticizing while depending on American defense.
- The Ukraine-Russia conflict will likely end with a DMZ rather than Ukraine reclaiming all territory.
- Putin invaded Ukraine because he perceived weakness in US leadership.
- Western interference in Ukrainian politics contributed to tensions.
- Trump's peace plan includes strategic investment in Ukrainian minerals near the DMZ.
- There's inconsistency in how the US approaches Ukraine versus Israel regarding civilian casualties.
- China is less likely to invade Taiwan compared to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
- Pacific allies are actively rearming against Chinese threats.
- New warfare technologies like drones may prove more effective for Taiwan's defense than traditional carriers.
- Israel struggles to convert tactical victories into strategic resolution.
- "Abraham Accords" allies have complex motivations including concerns about Iran.
- Western democracies struggle with asymmetric warfare and maintaining resolve for definitive victory.
- Democrats should return to Clinton-era policies on borders, crime, and budgets.
- Democrats are controlled by a hard left with positions only 20% of Americans support.
- Trump is transforming American politics from race-based to class-based coalition building.
- Republicans are becoming "the party of the middle class" while Democrats represent coastal elites and the subsidized poor.
