Estimating Housing Supply and Demand

Are you ready to deconstruct the enigma of rapidly escalating mortgage rates and their impact on the US housing market? We've rolled out the red carpet for our esteemed guest, Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, who brings a wealth of insight to elucidate this multifaceted issue. We're going to scrutinize the explosive pace of this rate surge, an event unparalleled in modern US history. Alongside, we will be probing into its ramifications on home sales, and the potential strain it might put on consumers who are already grappling with existing debts.

The discussion expands to include a comparative study between the current lock-in effect of mortgage rates and the scenario in the 1980s. We'll illuminate the influence of Airbnb-like properties and talk about the effects of the reduced homebuilding activity post 2008. Delving into demographic dynamics, we explore how the millennial population is shaping the housing market and ponder on the potential challenges that could stem from an upswing in bank lending.

We end by casting a lens on the nationwide housing shortage, scrutinizing its roots in supply-demand dynamics and vacancy rates. With the help of Census data and demographic factors such as age, education, and income, we'll make an educated guess about the long-term housing demand. We'll tackle the influence of second homes, naturally vacant housing, short-term rentals, and investors on the housing market, and discuss how the shift towards remote work and the inversion of the yield curve might impact the future housing scenario. So, gear up for an enlightening discussion that's backed with data and brimming with insights about the US housing market and the mortgage industry.

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