4min chapter

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis cover image

E13: AI open letter debate, "pausers", and what we're all scared of with AI with Anton Troynikov and Flo Crivello [Moment of Zen]

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

CHAPTER

The Hindsight Bias Inverse Scaling Law Finding

GPT four is perfect at this. It doesn't make the mistake anymore. Figured it out like grocked that concept and now has basically flawless performance on the hindsight bias test. I mean, good God, we just went from 10th percentile on the bar to 90th percentile with one generation. Like, what's the next generation going to be? I don't know. Nobody has a credible claim to predict the details of the behavior of the next gen model. They can probably predict some abstract numerical loss function pretty well. But what that caches out to in terms of actual behavior is totally unknown.

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