Ozzie Gooen is the founder of the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI), a nonprofit building software tools for forecasting and policy analysis. I’ve known him through the rationality community since 2008 and we have a lot in common.
00:00 Introducing Ozzie
02:18 The Rationality Community
06:32 What’s Your P(Doom)™
08:09 High-Quality Discourse and Social Media
14:17 Guesstimate and Squiggle Demos
31:57 Prediction Markets and Rationality
38:33 Metaforecast Demo
41:23 Evaluating Everything with LLMs
47:00 Effective Altruism and FTX Scandal
56:00 The Repugnant Conclusion Debate
01:02:25 AI for Governance and Policy
01:12:07 PauseAI Policy Debate
01:30:10 Status Quo Bias
01:33:31 Decaf Coffee and Caffeine Powder
01:34:45 Are You Aspie?
01:37:45 Billionaires in Effective Altruism
01:48:06 Gradual Disempowerment by AI
01:55:36 LessOnline Conference
01:57:34 Supporting Ozzie’s Work
Show Notes
Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI) — https://quantifieduncertainty.org
Ozzie’s Facebook — https://www.facebook.com/ozzie.gooen
Ozzie’s Twitter — https://x.com/ozziegooen
Guesstimate, a spreadsheet for working with probability ranges — https://www.getguesstimate.com
Squiggle, a programming language for building Monte Carlo simulations — https://www.squiggle-language.com
Metaforecast, a prediction market aggregator — https://metaforecast.org
Open Annotate, AI-powered content analysis — https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/open-annotate/
Come to the Less Online conference on May 30 - Jun 1, 2025: https://less.online
Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! https://www.youtube.com/@lethal-intelligence
PauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.info
Join the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!
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