Framing selection as probability, not certainty

Dr. Joe Baker (@bakerjtoronto) is the Tanenbaum Research Chair at the University of Toronto, Canada. He is a world-leader in research on talent identification, developing sport expertise, relative age effect, and high performance athlete development and has held visiting researcher/professor positions in the United Kingdom, Australia and Germany. His research considers the varying influences on optimal human development, ranging from issues affecting athlete development and skill acquisition to barriers and facilitators of optimal aging. Joe is author/editor of 9 books and hundreds of peer reviewed articles and book chapters. He works with several Canadian high performance sports teams (e.g., Golf Canada, Wheelchair Basketball Canada) and organizations (e.g., Own the Podium, the Canadian Sport Institutes/Centres, the Canadian Paralympic Committee) in their quests for international success. More info on his research can be found at yorku.ca/bakerj His new book is called The Tyranny of Talent: How it Compels and Limits Achievement… and Why We Should Ignore It and it is a doozy. In our conversation today we go over th emain points Joe discussed at the IIHF conference we both spoke at in September 2025. We try and define what talent is, and why labels and talent ID systems have been so damaging to children, all the while missing many of our potentially most talented athletes. We also discuss the massive importance of long term engagement.

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