The Risks of Black Swans Coming

The nature of black swans is that you don't necessarily know when they're coming, right? It's hard to spot. A turn in the war, I think, is the most obvious risk for humanitarian reasons above all but certainly there will be economic consequences of that as well. Lots of other things could happen. We've had some weird climatological effects this year, among others. You could have a terrible hurricane or something like that that disrupts petroleum processing ... There are all sorts of things that I'm not betting on them happening."