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Chance, Risk, and the Art of Uncertainty, with Sir David Spiegelhalter

Many Happy Returns

CHAPTER

Navigating Uncertainty: The Realities of Prediction

This chapter explores the uncertainties and limitations in model selection and prediction, particularly in finance and sports. It emphasizes the randomness involved in outcomes, the dangers of misinterpreting rankings, and the need for robust models that consider extreme events in forecasting.

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