What Can the Sahm Rule Tell Us About the Economy?
On Investing
Introduction
The hosts share their recent breaks and the volatility in the markets. They introduce Claudia Somme, an economist who developed a recession dating method based on job growth, and discuss her thoughts on inflation and a potential soft landing in the economy.
In this episode, Schwab's Chief Fixed Income Strategist Kathy Jones interviews former Fed economist Claudia Sahm. And Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders discusses the December jobs report with Kevin Gordon. Liz Ann and Kevin look at the differences between the numbers in the household survey and the establishment survey—and how this data will affect the fight against inflation, among other topics. You can see the charts they mention in this article: Mixed Signals: December's Jobs Report.
Kathy and Claudia discuss the Sahm rule, which is an indicator of a recession, and its purpose in providing policymakers with direction for providing relief during economic downturns. The conversation then shifts to the labor market, with Claudia highlighting its resilience and the need for a sustainable expansion. The discussion moves on to inflation, with Claudia explaining that recent inflation has been driven by supply-side shocks rather than demand. She expresses confidence in the Fed's ability to reach its 2% inflation target. Their conversation also touches on the debate within the Fed and the potential impact of the Fed's communication on financial markets.
You can follow Claudia Sahm's newsletter, Stay-at-Home Macro, at https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/.
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