to stay home Or to vote for trump may be completely eliminated by the by the rush of the over 45 voter for who cares about this away from by You know you get the impression that The biden democrats aren't very good at this Both job of american politics. You've been in office now entering their fourth year The american position in afghanistan collapsed Russia invaded ukraine the war of rages on hamas attacks israel The hoothees have stopped red sea shipping Haiti is in a state of collapse inflation continues to Raise prices and interest rates for americans spectably unexpectedly And the biden ministration looks around and says Well, that's double down on our base. That's the winning strategy in 2024 is to double down on our base And so you have the state of the union the other week Which I

saw immediately as a

base play a campaign rally in the house of representatives Something I never seen before You have this speech by shomer yesterday another thing I never seen before It's not just that shomer hasn't weighed in on foreign policy. I can't recall a us senator Ever saying it's time for elections to bring down the government of a democratic ally

typically

We reserve our calls for regime change for authoritarian adversaries not long-standing allies Whose very creation america had a pivotal role

in

So it's a completely unprecedented speech And I think what's really behind the worry john Isn't so much. Oh the young people Are aren't going to turn out for us It's that the young people are going to vote for third party candidates And what's happened to it seems to me is this democratic party coalition has imploded A coalition really based it's a top-bottom coalition. It's affluent college educated white professionals And then a or working class non-white voters Well, the educated affluent white professionals are still there But the working class non-white voters are abandoning the democratic party many Hispanic voters Are going to trump Many african men more african-american men are going to trump and the republicans but even More significantly larger group of non-white non-college voters Are looking to third party candidates and all it would take is a significant third party vote Over 3% To give trump the election and so they're doubling down on the base strategy in order to keep that third party vote low I don't think it's going to work bam. You worked on the 2012 Romney campaign And this base strategy that man is talking about was the key to obama's victory against Romney in in 2012 having won a very broad base election in 2008 Obama most broad based victory in 20 years um, he was in worse shape in 2012 and um, he They figured out how to turn out low propensity voters within the heart of this Democratic base In a way that was a came as a complete surprise to the romney campaign who did not believe that the people that they were polling every night Were actually going to turn out obama got five million fewer votes than he got in 2008 thus indicating that his coalition or his you know appeal his mass appeal had Uh not disappeared, but it certainly you know taken an eight percent hit Or something like that, but he was still able to win and there was this kind of weird post 2012 triumphalism that said Well, you know what like this is the play Go to your base go to your base go to your base. We have more of them than they and the base is great because it's young people so of course young people get older and older and older and they keep voting and uh Hispanics and blacks we got 95 percent 97 percent support with blacks with the highest Turnout among any ethnic group. This is great. This is our play and then Hillary law Hillary lost and uh On on what she thought on was a sort of this was the operating principle and here's matt saying Look this coalition is imploding. You've got to go back to a broader base election appeal That can get not only base voters in some fashion but uh independence to take the place of base voters who are disaffected with you and they're Not doing that does that conform with your understanding of what happened in me? They're not having that if yeah, I

Yes and no, I mean I I have a hard time comparing it because um Mitt romney as much as I would have liked him to have been president and I I worked on both his campaigns for president uh, and I think he would have been a good president uh one could make the argument he was a useful foil for obama in 2012 in the in the So soon after the global financial crisis running against uh sort of mainstream Republican guy who i'm just again. I don't think this is a fair kind of characterization of him, but i'm just giving you the characterization they they used Uh who made you know all his money and private equity for private equity kind of market investing became a dirty dirty term dirty phrase after the global financial crisis uh our pollet so I'm not it's hard to compare him as an opponent to donald trump what what what riden has you know, it's an hillary faced in donald trump donald trump who's been able to Which a kind of this is in this and i'm not i'm probably not going to use this terminology exactly right but a much more of a class based frame for the election this sort of populist class based You know our politics have moved or at least many from the left what we think of is the left the center left i guess have moved from like a class based identity to a a Sorry to a class based identity meaning they identify more with the guy who's going to fight china And they're gonna they're gonna identify the guy who's gonna quote unquote take on big tech And they're you know and so I and they see in trump that guy Whereas i'm not sure they would have seen romney as that person So I think trump is is unique to this moment and he's able to pull a lot of voters from these very Various demographics that matt is speaking to who may in previous Democratic presidential elections like 2012 they just see all these minority groups and say oh there are there are We've just got to turn out more of them right that that group is in our camp So if we just get more of them to turn out It's it's like a guarantee to move them from the maybe stay home column to if they turn on vote They definitely vote for the democrats or for obama And I think trump has kind of broken that model because many of those minority groups view themselves again i'm not speaking you know as as like a Part of a class an economic class than a then like a You know a racial demographic group and um and if they view themselves as part of a class and a class that's under siege in in uh trump's telling You know, I think

I think yeah, I think it doesn't work Well, there's also the I mean to the third party point that I think Uh also has the democrats scared not just because the identity politics isn't playing out as it has in previous elections But because In all of the polls Powerful third party candidates are drawing more from bighton than from trump and trump wins with those But there are several third party candidates. I mean you've got well you've got cornell west You've got you know the ubiquitous jill stein then you've got rfk jr But then there's the possibility of some sort of no labels candidate as well.