Most of our casual, non real academic explorations of risk are based around classroom exercises like flipping a coin. In the united states, these are approximated by normal distributions where most of the events occur around the mean. And if you bring your intuition from the normal distribution into this picture, you're going to make some horrible mistakes. Theris worsean for those listening to audio only, i'm gong,. we're going to describe this in a minum without the graph, but carry on.