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Wall Street Keeps Overestimating China's Macro Data
Market Depth
The Slow Consensus Pivot on China
The banks that I just mentioned who just cut the their China full year 2023 GDP forecast down to 5% in the last 24 hours following the Q to China GDP release. The reason for the very late and still behind pivoting on China is not career risk management, it's stupidity, ignorance and arrogance. So you can either risk being wrong once by maintaining your view, right. If you change a view and then that doesn't play out. Or you can cement yourself being wrongonce by by flipping right, which basically makes your redo mulligan call worthless anyway.
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