The following is a quick collection of forecasting markets and opinions from experts which give some sense of how well-informed people are thinking about the state of US democracy. This isn't meant to be a rigorous proof that this is the case (DM me for that), just a collection which I hope will get people thinking about what's happening in the US now.

Before looking at the forecasts you might first ask yourself:

What probability would I put on authoritarian capture?, and
At what probability of authoritarian capture would I think that more concern and effort is warranted?

Forecasts[1]

The US won’t be a democracy by 2030: 25% - Metaculus
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?: 48% - Manifold
If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM): 61% [...]

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Outline:

(00:45) Forecasts

(01:50) Quotes from experts & commentators

(03:20) Some relevant research

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First published:
October 8th, 2025

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eJNH2CikC4scTsqYs/experts-and-markets-think-authoritarian-capture-of-the-us

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