How predictive are spread charts?

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Michael Oliver to the show. Michael Oliver is Momentum Structural Analysis MSA. In this detailed discussion, Oliver provides a comprehensive analysis of the current precious metals market, highlighting significant technical breakouts and potential future movements. Oliver emphasizes a critical technical shift occurring in the gold market, particularly in its performance relative to the S&P 500.

He notes that gold has broken out of a long-standing trading range, signaling the beginning of a potentially multi-year bull market. This breakout suggests that gold is poised to outperform the stock market, with potential gains far beyond current expectations.

The conversation takes an especially bullish turn when discussing silver. Oliver predicts an extraordinary surge in silver prices, potentially reaching $200 by the second quarter. He bases this projection on historical precedents of commodities breaking out of long-term trading ranges, such as copper and lead, which experienced rapid price appreciation after decades of stagnation.

Oliver also highlights the potential for gold and silver mining stocks, arguing that they are currently undervalued and positioned for significant growth. He suggests that miners could potentially double in relative value to gold while simultaneously benefiting from rising precious metals prices.

The broader commodity complex is another area of interest for Oliver. He sees a potential asset class shift favoring commodities over traditional paper markets, recommending investors consider commodity-related stocks in sectors like agriculture, oil, and base metals.

00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:05 – Gold’s Bull Market Outlook
00:01:41 – Gold vs S&P Spread Breakout
00:04:43 – Spread Charts Predictive Power
00:08:37 – Silver’s Leadership in Bull Market
00:09:55 – Silver vs Gold Ratio Breakout
00:13:40 – Silver Historical Projections
00:17:00 – Comparisons to Copper and Lead
00:23:45 – Miners vs Gold Spread Analysis
00:28:30 – Miners vs S&P Performance Shift
00:31:10 – Other Commodities Investment Opportunities
00:33:40 – Momentum Structural Analysis Overview
00:34:45 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
X: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Email: mailto:michaeloliver@olivermsa.com

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J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

n the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.

In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.