THINKING, FAST & SLOW (DANIEL KAHNEMAN) - Listening books
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The Importance of Unbiased Predictions
If your predictions are unbiased, you will never have the satisfying experience of correctly calling an extreme case. When a venture capitalist looks for the next big thing, the risk of missing the next Google or Facebook is far more important than making a modest investment in a startup that ultimately fails. For a rational person, predictions that are unbiased and moderate should not present a problem. If you choose to delude yourself by accepting extreme predictions, however, you will do well to remain aware of your self-indulgence.
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