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From Liquidity To A Credit Crisis

The Macro Trading Floor

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Is It an OK Idea to Watch Duration and Bonds in the West?

I think it's an OK idea to have some exposure to watch duration and bonds in the West over the next 12 months. I'm looking at 100 basis point of cuts being priced between June and December this year in the US. But we are talking some serious risk premium basically being built into the front end of the curves right now. You can still make money on those if you go long bonds, but at these levels, they need to be then sure that you either get a solid, strong recession starting as soon as possible with this price is already in or that this turns into a banking crisis.

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