4min chapter

The Gray Area with Sean Illing cover image

Julia Galef on how to argue better and change your mind more

The Gray Area with Sean Illing

CHAPTER

Is Human Nature Really Good or Evil?

A blogger who's a friend of mine, he goes by Scott Alexander, has a great blog called Slate Star Codex. Every year he makes predictions ranging from things about his personal life like will I finish this particular project or get a new roommate. He attaches probability levels to his predictions as well so that he can kind of tell like, am I calibrated? And on the one hand it always struck me as a good way of finding out what people were really saying. On the other hand, the spot probability checks often strike me as a way of creating false precision.

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