The Gray Area with Sean Illing cover image

Julia Galef on how to argue better and change your mind more

The Gray Area with Sean Illing

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Is Human Nature Really Good or Evil?

A blogger who's a friend of mine, he goes by Scott Alexander, has a great blog called Slate Star Codex. Every year he makes predictions ranging from things about his personal life like will I finish this particular project or get a new roommate. He attaches probability levels to his predictions as well so that he can kind of tell like, am I calibrated? And on the one hand it always struck me as a good way of finding out what people were really saying. On the other hand, the spot probability checks often strike me as a way of creating false precision.

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