Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez cover image

Phil Suttle on the Inflation Combustion Model, the Fed’s Errors, and US Housing

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

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Is the Recession Going Away?

We are already clearly in late cycle territory, meaning the unemployment rate is at near historic laws and the inflation rates high. The big thing that isn't positioned lade cycle is policy. We have monetary policies still positioned as well as talk of what's going to get done. And i think there's that old rody dornbush adage that expansions don and die of old age. They're always murdered by the fed. I'm not so sure about that anymore. But we can see a little bit more labour supply response which will help skirt the recession risk. That would give us a very hard time with one or two conditngs turning into another major dislocation like april

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