It's very difficult to say, i'm going to have lower returns than you year in, year out. And that's yet. There's another thing t people criticise me when i said i'd rather have 80 % of my portfolio in cash. Cash is doing pretty well these days. I mean, cat with cash, yo can buy, you can buy ten times the number ofe ant you. So s o did the lasta son you. Sey, let's come back to your point about not having a predecessor, because i think it's such fascinating and deep truth. Tis is some form of otism that we seem to have with respect to history. Because we
Nassim Taleb talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the financial crisis, how we misunderstand rare events, the fragility of the banking system, the moral hazard of government bailouts, the unprecedented nature of really, really bad events, the contribution of human psychology to misinterpreting probability and the dangers of hubris. The conversation closes with a discussion of religion and probability.