The Global Macro Forecast for April

We expect the Kaxin Manufacturing PMI, which surveys more small media enterprises and exporters in the eastern coastal regions of China, to remain around 50 in April unchanged from March. The growth momentum could continue into May, as the upcoming Golden Week holiday in the first week is expected to be the first multi-day holiday since the January exit wave. We expect B&M to again leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.75% on the 3rd of May, in line with a long-held view that it has already ended its hiking cycle. Then in Thailand we've got inflation coming up and we expect headline inflation to increase slightly to 2.9% year and year in April