The Illusion of Knowledge
The Memo by Howard Marks
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Introduction
This is the memo by howard marks, the illusion of knowledge. I've been expressing my disregard for forecasts for almost as long as i've been writing my memos. There are two kinds of forecasters, those who don't know, and those whoDon't know they don't know. None of the thoughts expressed, even on economic matters, seemed much more persuasive than the others. And that's the point. It was that lunch that started me thinking about writing yet another memo on the futility of macro forecasting soon thereafter.
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