Episode 259: Comprehensive Overview: Estimating Expected Returns
The Rational Reminder Podcast
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How to Think About Expected Returns
Stocks are simply more risky in the long run than I had thought before I wrote this paper. What do you mean this means for their asset allocation? We don't have the answer for uncertainty, which is, by definition, very difficult to account for. The actual predictive power gets pretty fuzzy, depending on the time period in the country. But since we're predicting the future anyway, we're not too fast on specifics.
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