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The Macroeconomic Signals Have Rarely Been This Confusing

The Breakdown

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Home Builders Sentiment Continues to Crash in August

The home builder confidence gauge fell for the eighth straight month, this marks the worst stretch of consecutive decline since two thousand seven. Excluding the pandemic, all three key metrics in the survey, which include current sales, expected future sales and prospective buyer traffic, all hit two year lows. There is now nine months worth of housing supply available, highest inventory level since 20 ten. And were it not for the still extremely elevated price of houses, plus higher mortgage rates that are causing the cost of financing to go up. This would be a good thing. But as we've discussed before, part of the reason that housing got so expensive over the last ten years was the lingering knock on effects of

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