Will Trump Use Force or Perform for Optics?

Let's talk about the National Security Strategy! American policy is entering its “choose-your-own-adventure” era, where fiscal dreams meet bond-market reality, and every global problem looks oddly like a mortgage-rate issue. What happens when primacy of nations collides with actual nations... some of which are run by people you wouldn’t trust with your lawnmower? Marko and Jacob step up to trade pitches on Trump’s “peace,” Venezuela’s theatrics, Honduras’ magical disappearing red lines, and whether geopolitics is now basically just offshore balancing with better PR. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Geopolitical Cousins

(01:14) - Raccoon Story and Algorithm Talk

(02:40) - Basketball and Leadership Analogies

(05:54) - Geopolitics Starts lol

(06:10) - Trump Accounts and Economic Policies

(21:17) - National Security Strategy Discussion

(47:04) - Critique of US Foreign Policy Rigidity

(47:18) - Pragmatism in US Foreign Policy

(47:35) - US Stance on Iran and Social Issues

(48:33) - Historical Context and Containment Policy

(49:24) - Flexible Foreign Policy and Realism

(50:37) - US Actions in Venezuela and Honduras

(56:38) - Venezuela's Oil and US Interests

(58:44) - Honduras' Strategic Importance

(01:01:55) - US Hypocrisy in Foreign Policy

(01:03:19) - National Security Strategy and Global Military Presence

(01:08:11) - Debate on Multipolar World and US Strategy

(01:23:14) - AI, Crypto, and National Security

(01:29:32) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Referenced in the Show:

National Security Strategy Document - https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro