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Neil Shearing: What the Consensus Is Missing About the Current Economy

The Long View

CHAPTER

Navigating Economic Uncertainties and Forecasting Challenges

The chapter explores the complexities of predicting the current economy, focusing on the unique dynamics of the present cycle and the impacts of shifts between manufacturing and service sectors during the pandemic. It underscores the crucial role of the supply side in shaping economic forecasts and inflation rates, urging a deeper analysis beyond year-on-year figures. Additionally, it discusses regional economic performances, policy responses, and potential risks in the financial systems of various countries like China, Europe, the UK, and Japan.

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