The Eliezer school of thought one versus lost by shooting itself in the foot. I'm guessing that maybe hinges on a core question around like, to what degree are AI systems of sort of roughly the capability that we have now kind of inevitable given the data and compute inputs already coming to exist? And it's hard for me to imagine a counterfactual history where if deep learning kicked off in 2012, and that's whatever 10 years into Google or something, and then 2017 we get the transformer,. It's hard for us to imagine a 2023 where we're not pretty far down that path, even if Eliezer had never been born or whatever.

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