Economic Indicators and Recession Insights

Mike Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist at Simplify, joins Monetary Matters to discuss why the strength of the equity market and other technical factors are obfuscating weakness in the US consumer and broader indicators of economic weakness to the point that it could be masking a recession. Green also discusses his views on inflation, the bond market, and the current stage of the passive investing endgame that he believes is the main culprit driving equity markets higher and higher.

Follow Mike Green on Twitter: https://x.com/profplum99

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Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Read Mike’s Substack here: https://www.yesigiveafig.com

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:46 US Consumer Mirage

08:59 The Impact of High Interest Rates

13:39 Labor Market Weakness Will Eventually Force the Fed to Cut

15:03 Current Stage of the Passive Endgame

25:25 Recession Timing

33:31 How Will Asset Values Fair in the Next Recession?

40:30 Bond Market &Inflation Views

46:38 Uber's Impact on Unemployment

52:03 Tariff Uncertainty & the Fed

54:04 Bonds, Housing, & Other Macro Trades

01:02:03 Bitcoin, Solana, & Other Closing Thoughts