The Importance of Multiple Methods in a Deal Scenario

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I think what I would want to do in practice is have a logical argument based on what you believe is true about the world and also a numerical calculation. And so I can bolster that by using multiple methods. Expected value and maximization says if one thing comes out even slightly better, even you know, 0.01% better in expected value, put all researchers into it until you start having limited capacity. You could actually test it in simulation. Like you could set up a charitable investment portfolio and put in the numbers,. But then do like a Monte Carlo simulation, run it 10,000 times and see if you're right.

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How can we form good habits more effectively? What roles do reward and punishment play in the habit formation process? And what roles should they play? How should we structure our daily schedules around new habits to maximize the likelihood that they'll stick? If our goal is to do 100 push-ups a day, it's often easier to start with 10 and increase the difficulty over time; but at what level of difficulty should we start, and how quickly should we approach the target difficulty? How does willpower connect (or not) with habit formation? Why should we care about animal consciousness? When it comes to estimating how much good specific interventions will do, are bad estimates better than no estimates at all?

Dr. Jim Davies is a professor of cognitive science at Carleton University. He is the author of Imagination: The Science of Your Mind's Greatest Power; Riveted: The Science of Why Jokes Make us Laugh, Movies Make us Cry, and Religion Makes us Feel One with the Universe; and Being the Person Your Dog Thinks You Are: The Science of a Better You. He co-hosts (with Dr. Kim Hellemans) the award-winning podcast Minding the Brain. Learn more about him at jimdavies.org or follow him on Twitter or Facebook.

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