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How to form habits effectively (with Jim Davies)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
The Importance of Multiple Methods in a Deal Scenario
I think what I would want to do in practice is have a logical argument based on what you believe is true about the world and also a numerical calculation. And so I can bolster that by using multiple methods. Expected value and maximization says if one thing comes out even slightly better, even you know, 0.01% better in expected value, put all researchers into it until you start having limited capacity. You could actually test it in simulation. Like you could set up a charitable investment portfolio and put in the numbers,. But then do like a Monte Carlo simulation, run it 10,000 times and see if you're right.
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