Recession Risk: 30–40% Chance in 2026

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi joins Chuck Todd to assess an economy that looks strong on paper—but feels weak for most Americans. While the top third of earners are doing well, lower-income households are tightening their belts as consumer spending slows and job creation stagnates. Zandi warns of a 30–40% chance of a recession by 2026, citing the drag from federal job cuts, the drying up of COVID relief funds, and the destabilizing effects of rising tariffs and electricity costs.

They also dig into the booming—but risky—AI sector, where soaring valuations and limited job growth may be setting up the next market correction. Gold prices are surging, commercial real estate is slumping, and housing shortages are widening for middle-class renters. With Americans increasingly unable to move for better opportunities and faith in Washington deteriorating, Zandi and Todd explore whether the U.S. economy can remain the world’s “safe haven” — or if 2026 could be the year that confidence finally cracks.

Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:00 The economy is only good for the top 1/3rd of earners

02:00 Lower income earners are struggling

03:30 Signs of a consumer pullback are starting to show up

05:00 The economy isn’t creating many jobs

05:30 Chance of a recession is forecast at 30-40% in 2026

07:15 The economic impact of the cuts to federal workforce

09:00 Loss of 100k+ federal jobs will be a drag on the economy

10:00 Covid money is drying up in state and local government budgets

10:30 AI is starting to have impact on the job force

13:00 Data center investment creates wealth but not jobs

14:30 Are the AI stocks creating a bubble?

15:30 Investors may be a bit over their skis with AI

16:45 Stock market could be headed for a massive correction

18:00 Stock price to earnings ratios are at historic high

19:30 Tariff impacts starting to show up, AI providing a tailwind for economy

21:00 Economy is very vulnerable to unforeseen shocks

21:45 Price of gold at all time high, a warning sign?

23:30 Uncertainty around American economy driving up gold price

24:45 Risk of American economy not being considered a “Safe Haven”

26:00 Loss of safe haven status means higher interest rates

26:30 Impact of rising electricity prices on the economy

28:30 Oil and gas prices have stayed relatively low

29:30 Why haven’t investors flocked to real estate as an investment?

30:30 The price of commercial real estate is down substantially

31:45 High interest rates have cooled demand for residential real estate

33:15 The high end rental market is oversupplied

34:00 Workforce/middle income housing is in short supply

35:30 Housing issues vary by city and region, hard to address nationally

36:45 How much would the economy benefit from domestic migration?

38:30 Aging population a big factor in lack of domestic migration

39:00 Most Americans can’t afford to move

40:15 Impact of America’s broken politics on the economy

42:00 Will issues with China’s economy affect the globe?

43:00 Level of risk going into 2026?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.