China, Open Models, and AI CapEx Risks

Scott Bessent says he doesn't understand why oil prices are spiking. The guy standing between America and the River Styx is confused :) The cousins crack open a few cold ones this week and break down why the 30-year just hit a 20-year high - not debt, not deficits, just vibes. Atrocious ones. The lads cover the war in Iran, tweets about North Korea, and a bond market that's done playing along. Plus... are hyperscalers minting money or building the next great overbuild? And what does the Lakers sale have to do with any of this? Everything, obviously.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Beer And Banter

(01:02) - Treasury Buyback Shock

(04:15) - Why Yields Matter

(05:44) - Growth And Data Center Debt

(09:34) - War In Iran And Bad Vibes

(10:27) - Three Bond Selloffs Explained

(18:16) - Debt Deficits And AI Debate

(26:23) - China Models And AI Capex

(43:06) - Dollar Multipolarity Risks

(46:03) - Reserve Currency Reliability

(47:40) - South Korea Tweet Fallout

(48:48) - Pound vs Dollar Inertia

(51:57) - Trump 1 vs Trump 2

(54:04) - Iran War Limits Debate

(59:14) - Multipolar Reality Sets In

(01:01:56) - Backlash Against Data Centers

(01:05:10) - Why AI Fear Spreads

(01:11:26) - Populism and Tax Future

(01:19:39) - Lakers Sale Conspiracies

(01:22:34) - Private Equity in Sports

(01:25:52) - Closing Banter and Wrap

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro