The Uncertainty of Investing: Past Performance vs. Future Results

Exploring the concept of 'past performance does not indicate future results' in investing and the role of historical data in determining the probabilistic likelihood of stock market performance. Discussing mean reversion, assigning probabilities to investing decisions, and the importance of optimism over fear in making investment choices. Addressing the question of tax-deferred vs. after-tax investing and providing advice on building an emergency fund for tax optimization in retirement.