2min chapter

Hi-Phi Nation cover image

The Precrime Unit

Hi-Phi Nation

CHAPTER

Bollinger's View on Probability and Probability in Predictive Polcing

Bollinger argues that even a statistically sound generalization doesn't automatically allow you to cross some threshold for treating something as being true. Let's take reasonable suspicion, he says: If an officer has enough grounds to search and frisk all ten to find the one shoplifter, then ten percent certainty is enough for reasonable suspicion. Bollinger’s view is that this isn't right, even if the statistical analysis is correct. The costs of failing to treat it as true even if it is, are not that high, or the cost of the false positives,. treating the person as though this is true to them when it isn't, are actually quite high.

00:00

Get the Snipd
podcast app

Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
App store bannerPlay store banner

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode