The Precrime Unit
Hi-Phi Nation
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Bollinger's View on Probability and Probability in Predictive Polcing
Bollinger argues that even a statistically sound generalization doesn't automatically allow you to cross some threshold for treating something as being true. Let's take reasonable suspicion, he says: If an officer has enough grounds to search and frisk all ten to find the one shoplifter, then ten percent certainty is enough for reasonable suspicion. Bollinger’s view is that this isn't right, even if the statistical analysis is correct. The costs of failing to treat it as true even if it is, are not that high, or the cost of the false positives,. treating the person as though this is true to them when it isn't, are actually quite high.
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