Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats
Astral Codex Ten Podcast
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Will There Be a Us? Russia War?
Metaculus has gone with either russia or two other security council member countries state that russia has invaded ukraine, which seems fine. But this hasn't significantly effected a longer running deadly clash between us. Poly market, predict it and calchi are all silent on this question for now. On a happier note, metaculus is bullish on the james space telescope. Ee's forecast time line begins at the beginning of 20 19, where the estimate is just under 80%. It shoots up immediately to around 95%, before quickly correcting itself to just under 90%. Total predictions, ae, hundred 39. Community prediction, ninety-nine per cent.
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