This week we discuss the Fed decision & economic projections, the bullish market signals, and the reasoning behind recession calls. We also delve into the trajectory of the economy and cutting cycle, private credit markets, the banana zone, and much more. Enjoy!
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/195AL7oEaAkimijE0XSnagP8vwzeDat4N/view?usp=drive_link
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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:14) FOMC Victory Lap
(03:38) Quinn's Framework
(06:11) Bullish Rate Cut?
(09:30) Summary of Economic Projections
(14:32) Bullish Market Signals
(18:05) The World Trade
(21:09) Trajectory of the Cutting Cycle
(24:30) Market Sentiment & Credit Risk
(27:50) Private Credit
(29:55) Sovereign Debt Crowding Out Private Debt
(31:43) Permissionless Ad
(32:23) Fiscal Super Cycle
(34:09) Energy, Commodities, & AI
(37:13) Economic Expectations
(39:50) Reconciling Recession Calls
(44:35) The Market Gives Something for Everyone
(50:38) Oil Market & Liquidity
(53:32) The Banana Zone
(58:58) Monetary Matters
(01:01:09) Balancing Market Views
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
