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3min chapter
Self-Improvement and Research Ethics (with Rob Wiblin)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
The Trickiness of Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions
The right way to think about predictions is with probabilities, he says. But it's much harder to evaluate thing than just like how often have they been right? "In order to judge how good someone is at forecasting, you just really need a remarkably large sample" He was suspicious of prediction markets or betting markets and all the betting odds during this 2020 cycle.
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