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Rationality: Steven Pinker in conversation with Tim Harford

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Are You Rational or Irrational?

When things occur totally at random, it is inevitable that there will be clustering of events. We tend to underestimate how many opportunities there are for coincidences to occur and therefore tend to be overly impressed by coincidences when they do occur. The birthday paradox confounds our intuitions because we think we forget that there are 366 ways for two people to have the same birthday.

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