Solvency Spectrum and Small Probability Risks

Andy and Preston explore the turbulent world of Bitcoin treasury companies, from MicroStrategy’s bold plays to sector-wide risks and poor performance. They dive into Bitcoin-backed stablecoins, valuation models, and adoption barriers.

The episode wraps with discussions on energy, AI, and whether Bitcoin's market cycles are evolving toward stability or fresh volatility.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:43 - Why many Bitcoin treasury companies have underperformed or failed 00:03:34 - How MicroStrategy’s debt profile compares to its market cap and cash flow 00:06:59 - The concept of Bitcoin-backed stablecoins and their over-collateralization 00:08:58 - Key solvency risks in stablecoin issuance and Bitcoin securitization 00:14:46 - How valuation frameworks like MNAV apply to Bitcoin treasuries 00:19:26 - Limitations of MicroStrategy stock vs. holding Bitcoin directly 00:26:09 - Why Bitcoin adoption is hindered by complexity and public perception 00:29:18 - Andy’s diversified investment strategy beyond Bitcoin 00:32:45 - How emerging AI and EV technologies intersect with financial trends 00:42:39 - Market cycle insights and predictions for Bitcoin’s future price

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

 BOOKS AND RESOURCES

• Andy Edstrom’s Book: Why Buy Bitcoin: Investing Today in the Money of Tomorrow.
• X Account: Andy Edstrom.
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