The Recession Questions: Yes, No, When and How Bad?
Notes on the Week Ahead
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The Effects of Monetary Tightening on the Economy
All these problems are likely to worsen for as long as the Federal Reserve maintains its current level of interest rates. This could lead to a renewed battle turmoil among smaller banks in the fall, particularly among the hundreds of publicly traded banks which are vulnerable to a run on the stock. Even if further turmoil is avoided, banks are growing more cautious in their lending. The impact of all of this could unfold over the next few quarters and could be enough to tip the economy at recession.
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