The Challenges of Going From Zero to One

We have this mania for measuring things and so, you know, how likely is it that the money will be spent well? How do we model this? It actually ends up being a very, very tricky thing to do. I've often thought that there's sort of this two by two matrix on what on the future. You can be optimistic, pessimistic, definite or indefinite. And so optimistic future will be better than the present, pessimistic the future will be worse than the present. If you're definite, you'll be able to act with conviction, indefinite, the correct strategy is always a strategy of diversification. The U.S. in 50s and 60s was optimistic about