In this impromptu session recorded from his car, Anpnman (@spacanpanman) provides a deep-dive rebuttal to the recent Scotiabank report downgrading AST Spacemobile (ASTS) from a valuation perspective. The discussion explores the complex dynamics of Wall Street sell-side research, the potential influence of short sellers, and the technical flaws within the analyst’s bearish thesis.
Key Topics Discussed:
The Dynamics of Sell-Side Research: Anpnman explains how investment banks operate, noting that research is often a tool used to generate trading commissions from institutional clients like hedge funds. He suggests that the analyst, Andres Coello, may have been "spoon-fed" narrative points by short sellers who have suffered significant losses on ASTS positions.
The "Spoon-Fed" Pivot: The host highlights the analyst’s drastic shift in tone—from being an early bull with the highest price target on the street to echoing standard short-seller talking points regarding Starlink’s dominance.
Starlink vs. AST Spacemobile: The episode challenges the report’s comparison of Starlink’s fixed wireless success to the direct-to-cell market, calling it an "apples and oranges" comparison. Anpnman argues that Starlink’s current direct-to-cell offering is a "minimum viable product" limited to texting, whereas AST is building true broadband capabilities.
Business Model Misunderstandings: The host refutes the report’s focus on brand recognition, clarifying that AST operates as a wholesaler/infrastructure partner to MNOs (like AT&T and Verizon) and does not need consumer brand awareness to succeed.
Valuation Contradictions: Anpnman points out a major discrepancy in the Scotiabank model: while downgrading the stock based on current valuation, the analyst’s own long-term model projects massive growth, estimating $17.8 billion in free cash flow by 2032.
Strategic Wins Ignored: The discussion notes the report's failure to acknowledge key validations, such as the definitive agreement with Verizon and the significant investment from Saudi Telecom.
Conclusion:
Despite the temporary reprieve this report offers to short sellers, Anpnman argues that the "meat grinder" is approaching. With imminent satellite launches and potential military contracts on the horizon, the fundamental thesis for AST Spacemobile remains intact.
