2min chapter

The Gray Area with Sean Illing cover image

ICYMI: Julia Galef

The Gray Area with Sean Illing

CHAPTER

The Importance of Predictions

Every year he goes back and checks the predictions. These are predictions that sort of have a definitive answer. They're not like, is human nature truly good or evil? Like it's really hard to find out if you were right about that in a concrete definitive way next year. And on the one hand, it always struck me as a good way of finding out what people were really saying. But on the other hand, the spot probability checks often strike me as a way of creating false precision, right?

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