The Importance of Probability

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Having like three variables each with a 100 100 chance uh and success is like multiplying them all together then raising one of the variables from like 1% to 100% doesn't change your overall probability too much right but it is the first needle that is threaded. If you go if you are like 99 point 99.9% doom and then because people are now optimistic you're going down to 99% doom it's still in order of magnitude. It does feel hopeful I'm like enthusiastic about that and like ups the probability that I'm wrong about something that matters such as humanity's general ability to coordinate or so on. We don't need all of the people we just need the smart people to focus

In this episode, we delve into the frontier of AI and the challenges surrounding AI alignment. The AI / Crypto overlap at Zuzalu sparked discussions on topics like ZKML, MEV bots, and the integration of AI agents into the Ethereum landscape.

However, the focal point was the alignment conversation, which showcased both pessimistic and resigned optimistic perspectives. We hear from Nate Sores of MIRI, who offers a downstream view on AI risk, and Deger Turan, who emphasizes the importance of human alignment as a prerequisite for aligning AI. Their discussions touch on epistemology, individual preferences, and the potential of AI to assist in personal and societal growth.

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Timestamps

0:00 Intro 1:50 Guests

5:30 NATE SOARES 7:25 MIRI 13:30 Human Coordination 17:00 Dangers of Superintelligence 21:00 AI’s Big Moment 24:45 Chances of Doom 35:35 A Serious Threat 42:45 Talent is Scarce 48:20 Solving the Alignment Problem 59:35 Dealing with Pessimism 1:03:45 The Sliver of Utopia

1:14:00 DEGER TURAN 1:17:00 Solving Human Alignment 1:22:40 Using AI to Solve Problems 1:26:30 AI Objectives Institute 1:31:30 Epistemic Security 1:36:18 Curating AI Content 1:41:00 Scalable Coordination 1:47:15 Building Evolving Systems 1:54:00 Independent Flexible Systems 1:58:30 The Problem is the Solution 2:03:30 A Better Future

----- Resources

Nate Soares https://twitter.com/So8res?s=20

Deger Turan https://twitter.com/degerturann?s=20

MIRI https://intelligence.org/

Less Wrong AI Alignment xhttps://www.lesswrong.com/tag/ai-alignment-intro-materials

AI Objectives Institute https://aiobjectives.org/

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