Excess Returns  cover image

The Four Pillars of Macro with Andy Constan

Excess Returns

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What Are Your Views on the Stock Market and Bond Market?

I think there are three likely outcomes before we reach normality, whatever that may be. A deep recession kills inflation because the Fed has hit demand adequately so that people lose their jobs and inflation dies. There's a soft landing, where magically inflation falls, despite a very strong bond job market. Inflation stays low, and we don't lose a lot of jobs, and that's sort of what people think of as a soft landing. And then there's the hire for a longer island, and on that Island, the Fed has not yet killed inflation because of the job,. The thing I've noticed most, and a lot of that has changed in the last call it wheat, is that

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