Navigating Player Projections in Fantasy Baseball

This chapter explores the evolution and usage of player projections in fantasy baseball, detailing the transition from self-developed metrics to established models like Steamer and The Bat X. The discussion emphasizes the balance between empirical data and personal intuition, alongside critical evaluations of player performance expectations and biases.

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I am back with with Russell Withers of armchairroto.com

Armchair Roto
- When did you start writing articles?
  - Going over your article last year using BHQ prospect list and the chance they play in MLB / make an impact
- wRC+ as a tool - The Horwitz Rule
Player Analysis
- When projections don’t agree with your analysis of said player, either with the projections being too optimistic or too pessimistic
- How do you deal with the inherent biases we have?
- Do you think we use too much analysis at points?
OC’s!
- Slow OC’s
  - Good concept?
- How to navigate 12 team and 15 team leagues at the same and transition from one to the other
- Where do the biggest shifts in values come from when reshaping the player pool?
  - Where do you tend to put more emphasis on in 12 team leagues vs 15 teams?
DC’s
- 150’s v 400’s
DC Strategies
- How can we exploit pockets of values
- Do you tend to stick to certain “build” at specific points of the draft? IE- having position players by “x” round, having all SP’s by “x” round, etc
Current ADP and the March toward March
- Will you continue to draft a target when the price increases?
Uploading Ranks to NFBC (I Never hear anybody talk about this, but I’m totally obsessed with it and I always wonder what other people do):
- Do you upload list ranks at all?
- How many lists to upload?
- How often to update and upload a new list?
- How do you use them?
- Is the ADP listed directly in NFBC draft room worth anything? ANYTHING AT ALL?