The Importance of Forecasting Transformative AI

The Metaculous' data show that its forecasts provide much more than literally zero information on binary questions. Forecasts, like the three in this article, aren't good enough to get a year by year resolution. But they all seem to agree that transformative AI is most likely in the period between about 10 and 40 years from now - except arguably the second framing of Katya's survey.