State of the Market, with CMSHoldings, Jason from Telegram, and Jim Talbot
UpOnly: Chats with Crypto Experts
The One Thing That Gives Me a Little Caution About Where We Are
Finance is high deftly relative to where it's been the last couple of months. Front month futures, like perpetuals, are very, very expensive. I think from like mid july to mid august, there was only like one red daily in atheria and it was not even a substantial down move. And all you need is like a good slug of cash to come in, and it like sort of evens out. But it's definitely rich a to be like, holding long positions here, like you're paying for that.
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Show Notes
Cobie & Ledger <> Dan Matuszewski (CMS Holdings) <> Jason from Telegram <> Jim Talbot
UpOnly notes
“How do we feel here?”
– Ledger: “We have 1/2 of the true up only bull maximalists on here, if we get Kaleo on then we’d have the powerhouse”
– Dan: “There’s so much money pushing in here… you hear about like a 3, 4, 5 billion dollar equity raise in this space every week”
– Dan: “Like even if people sold… where’s that money gonna go? Like you can only buy so many houses and boats right”
– Jason: “We could go up or we could also go down”
– Jim: “I’m a mechanical trader – I watch the tape and the order book and trade off imbalances and things there”
Derivatives
– Ledge: “Dan where do we sit with financing stuff right now?”
– Dan: “It’s rich. Financing is high right now, not great not a super bullish thing, september expiry coming up too we’ll have to make it through these next few months”
– Cobie: “You got a lot of people waiting to just wait and buy the ATH breakout on ETH”
– Dan: “I am of the opinion there’s a lot of margin in the system right now”
HOT BALL OF MONEY EFFECT
– Cobie: “AVAX blew up, and then Fantom had an announcement, and AVAX stuff dropped like 85% and Fantom tripled”
– Dan: “Everyone got it this time, it was like the most pure hot ball of money effect”
Bullish Unlocks?
– Dan: “A lot of times it pays to know what’s going on in the OTC markets”
– Dan: “We bought a lot of Solana before the unlock, and it was so hard to get your hands on demand was super prevalent. So it was easy to say the unlock would be bullish”
– Cobie: “Have you been playing in these new ecosystems?”
– Dan: “Yeah we play in them as much as we can we have a high risk tolerance”
NFTs
– Jason: “I’m pretty new to these I’m like Sam” [Trabucco]
– Jason: “I got pitched this super convincing narrative of pixel dicks and hit up Cobie and was like yo what do you think? and he was like… nah mate”
– Cobie: “You hit me up and were like “Dick drawing is historical and monumental, dick drawing is part of human history we’ve been doing it since the caveman times, it’s memetic”” LOLLL
– Jim: “I get the sense there are gonna be some great buys over the next few weeks”
– There are gonna be huge applications for these in the metaverse
Ledger’s Marriage
– Cobie: “You ever show your wi-“
– Ledger: “No.” hahaha
– Ledger: “One time I showed her my meebit… she was not impressed” lmao
Dog Money
– Everyone’s fractionalizing their dog NFTs, there’s so much dog money
– Pleasrdao fractionalized the original Doge picture and raised $50M @ $250M val
– Dan: “You can’t see this stuff and get bearish”
– Jason: “Thoughts on people slowing this down?”
– Dan: “Really don’t think it’ll happen, no one wants to be the guy to come in and end this era of free money everywhere”
Crypto Getting Weirder
– Dan: “It’s gonna get weirder and weirder, and when you flush the whole world with all this money it’s gonna find its way into really weird corners. New money is just gonna keep pushing in”
– Cobie: “I don’t wanna live the next 6 months cause I came from a crypto class where once shit gets weird you wanna pull out – i gotta go into a coma”
– Someone asked Dan about NFTs
– Dan: “A couple junior guys on the desk [shoutout the other CMS guys] are really into it and I’m pumped for them cause they’re crushing it, but I just don’t have enough time I’m getting older”
Art
– Jim: “I’m really bullish on NFTs cause I think the art world is gonna join and it might become less pure crypto market”
– Cobie: “What’s the Mona Lisa of NFTs then?”
– Jason: “Why is the Mona Lisa the pico top of all traditional art?”
– Cobie: “idk…name 5 art pieces”
– Jason: “…Mona Lisa”
Other Chains and NFTs
– Ledger: “Dan what’s the role of on-chain activity in NFTs, like Solana and stuff”
– Dan: “The main thesis is that Solana has won spill over because ETH has been successful. But in a practical way the marginal losses of ETH are gonna price out large amounts of people. A lot of people wanna do this and they can do it on Solana (and other L2s)”
– Dan: “If you’re a buyer that net demand of block space is going to increase then you wanna be long both (ETH and SOL/ L2s)”
Normies into Crypto
– Dan: “My real world experience has been that bringing new guys on with MetaMask [is tough] because of fees, cancelled transactions and others”
– Ledger: “You cannot have a $5,000 bankroll and transact on Ethereum”
– Cobie: “Do you think L2s should have a token?”
– Dan: “If you have one that doesn’t have a token, someone will just fork it add a token and beat you”
– Cobie: “Gotcha so you need one defensively”
Options
– Ledger: “Last week we talked to Sam Tabasco and he said options are not very relevant for crypto”
– Dan: “We do trade options, we have a dedicated head that just trades vol, but I agree its not important. But it does make money and makes sense as a business” s/o Ryan probably drinking a stroller beer rn
– Ledge: “Do you keep that person because it will become more important?”
– Dan: “Its optionality on optionality. Eventually there will be an ETF and that will live on options”
– FTX just bought LedgerX, only place US retail can trade options
Cobie: “How long do you reckon until Pfizer and FTX partner to increase vaccine adoptions in the crypto community” lol
*Dan has to jet* good bye sir
FOR THE RECORD dan was chatting internally and made 2-5 trades over the course of this podcast, SBF vibes
Price Predictions
– Cobie: “If we break ATH here – $20k ETH, $150k-$200k BTC end of October”
– *Someone in chat said Cobie hates Solana*
– Cobie: “Solana is the only project episode we’ve had and like my 3rd largest position. Nice try mate”
Biggest Crypto Regret
– Ledger: “this podcast I talk to people every week who made it”
– Jason: “no regrets I see nothing but opportunity”
– Jim: “I’m a low time frame guy so I always sell early”
– Cobie: “2014 I lost a chunk of money and BTC Drak (?) said you haven’t earned your stripes til you’ve lost 100 Bitcoin”
FINAL ALPHA
– Jim: “If you don’t know when to buy or what price, average in. Then if you get a lower low, the trends broken”
– Jason: “Trust yourself, if you don’t trust yourself then just fucking trust yourself. The only mistake is not knowing how to handle yourself”
Ledger outro with Dutch accent
Notes by Kevin
Music by GiovanniPickle
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