The Labor Market: Cyclical strength and structural change
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Are You Worried About a Recession?
The last seven recessions in the united states were preceded by or accompanied by a spike and energy prices. The cyclical sectors of the economy are really not in in bad shape right now. We may be in this unusual situation of pent up demand for labor and high wage growth, which will actually tend to prolong the expansion. This is a particularly difficult time to make a call on whether we will or will not have a recession. I do think the risk of recession is higher now than it was a sort of, i say, years like 20 15, 20 16.
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