
#76-How mathematics can improve our lives and make us better critical thinkers-with guest John Allen Paulos
Thinking Clearly
00:00
COVID - Base Rate Neglect or Base Rate Fallacy?
I ran across a thing on social media that said something like 65% of people with COVID have vitamin D deficiency. And it kind of gives this big sir, oh my gosh, let's take some vitamin D. But then I kind of thought about it as someone who lives in the coastal temperate rainforest. A lot of us have Vitamin D deficiency. So I looked that up and on average 60% of people haveitamin D deficiency. Is that, would that be an example of a base rate neglect or base rate fallacy? Yeah, I think so. You might buy this explanation until you realize that Friday, Saturday and Sunday is three-sevenths of the week.
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