Robbie Bach on Writing and His Second Novel

In the midst of today’s AI hysteria, have we forgotten about blockchain technology and the seductive Web3 promise of decentralization? Robbie Bach, longtime Xbox chief and lieutenant of former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, certainly hasn’t. In his new novel, The Blockchain Syndicate, the prescient Bach imagines not only a giant political crypto grift, but also warns about the siren song of Distributed Autonomous Organizations (DAOs). No, blockchain might not be as sexy or lucrative as LLMs these days - but Web3 still matters even if, as Bach suggests, its promise of a decentralized network remains more seductive than substantive.

1. Crypto as “Giant Grift” Bach views cryptocurrency as a highly risky, speculative investment vehicle comparable to commodities like gold or silver, but warns there’s “definitely a giant grift” happening, with vulnerable people—particularly older investors putting their savings at risk—being exploited by those taking advantage of the crypto craze.

2. AI Bubble Will Burst (But Not Catastrophically) Bach believes we’re in an AI investment bubble where valuations are unsustainable. He predicts a “sorting” of winners and losers over the next 12-18 months, with many AI investments failing to pay out, though he avoids the term “explosive pop” in favor of a more gradual reckoning.

3. Blockchain: Powerful Tool, Double-Edged Sword Despite AI hype, Bach argues blockchain remains highly relevant and current. He sees it as neither inherently good nor bad—just a tool that can be used for legitimate purposes or criminal ones. He’s particularly intrigued by its dual nature: ultimate transparency yet also ultimate obfuscation through anonymity.

4. Microsoft’s Secret Weapon: Adaptability Bach credits Microsoft’s longevity to its ability to make “tectonic shifts” across generations—from DOS to Windows, to cloud computing, to AI. He argues this skill at navigating massive transitions under Gates, Ballmer, and Nadella is more impressive than any single product innovation.

5. FBI and CIA Are Irreplaceable Bach emphasizes that regardless of political views about current leadership, institutions like the FBI and CIA are essential for national security with no viable replacement. If they’re not working well, the solution is to fix them, not abandon them—a theme central to his thriller’s premise.

Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe