The Fed's Low Speech and the US Inflation Figures Yesterday Morning Have Changed Markets' View on Interest Rates

The three-year Bond rate fell 10 basis points to 4%. That's predicting what people think interest rates will be in the future. The market implied peak cash rate is now 4.4% by the year end. Markets have priced in about a 50% chance of a rate rise in August and a 75% chance of an increase in September. But it is a real shift in momentum, definitely. And you want to know why? Yes. We can never, as economists, have pure good news, we've got to have a bit of bad news as well. In China exports and imports both shrank faster than expected last month adding to growing trade pressures on the world's second largest